Fiorentina - AS Roma: tip, prognosis & odds - 09.05.2022 - ITALY: Serie A
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Fiorentina - AS Roma: tip, prognosis & odds - 09.05.2022 - ITALY: Serie A
Of course, the Italian Serie A race for the Scudetto is currently making the headlines. But the fight for the other international tickets is also extremely exciting a few ranks further down. It is also not yet certain how many clubs from the country of the reigning European champions will be represented in Europe in the coming season. Everything hinges on AS Roma beating Feyenoord in the Conference League final on May 25 to secure a secure Europa League spot.
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In order not to be dependent on the outcome of this title game from the point of view of the capital club, it would also be a good option to overtake the city rivals in the league, who are currently in fifth place. In any case, on Monday evening there is a chance to draw level on points. The prerequisite for this is that a prediction on the guest three between Fiorentina and AS Roma pays off
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Fiorentina : Stats & Current Form
For AC Fiorentina there is actually only "sparkling wine or seltzer” in the current season. It is not for nothing that the traditional club from the Tuscan capital has the team with the fewest draws of all first division clubs. In 35 games, Fiorentina only shared the points with their respective opponents five times. On the other hand, there are a proud 17 victories, but at the same time 13 defeats, which have complicated a better final position in the classification.
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As currently eighth in the table, "La Viola" would once again miss the international competition they were aiming for. At least the jump to seventh place has to be successful, even better to sixth place. Consequently, the upcoming duel against a direct competitor is of immense importance. The only annoying thing is that just in time for the final sprint, the form curve has reached a temporary valley.
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Fiorentina have won 3 of the last 4 home games, but recently had to bow to Udine in front of their own fans. This was only the 4th home loss this season after 11 wins and 2 draws. This puts the AC in 3rd place in the home table. The Italiano team has scored 34 goals and conceded 20 at home so far. Only 2 teams have scored more goals at home. In the last 4 league games, however, only 3 goals jumped out.
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As a rule, Fiorentina can be assessed much more strongly in front of their own fans. 35 of the total of 56 points could be booked at home. The lilies also celebrated eleven of the 17 wins of the season in their own stadium. However, not many goals were scored in the most recent home games. In the run-up to the 0:4 swatter against Udinese, a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through four times in a row. Three home games in this period ended with the tightest of all results, a 1-0.
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In our opinion, it is therefore a promising approach to give a tip between Fiorentina and AS Roma that there tend to be fewer goals. The under 3.5 would be worth considering, especially since there is a lot at stake given the table constellation and Roma are likely to focus on a stable defense. Apart from the long-term injured Castrovilli, everyone is probably on board.
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Estimated formation of Fiorentina:
terracotta; Odriozola, Milenkovic, Igor, Biraghi; Bonaventure, Torreira, Duncan; Gonzalez, Cabral, Saponara
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AS Roma Stats & Current Form
Say what you will about Jose Mourinho, but the Portuguese made history with his Romans reaching the Conference League final. He is now the first coach ever to be in a European final with four different clubs. At the end of May, the Giallorossi want to win the title in the competition of all places, which they didn't really take seriously in the group phase, but recently smelled a rat and now sees a great opportunity to qualify for the Europa League.
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Nevertheless, Tammy Abraham and colleagues still have a lot planned for the final sprint in Serie A. In particular, "La Magica” would like to win the duel with Lazio for fifth place in the table. At the moment, the city rivals have three more points, so in the event of a successful Fiorentina vs. AS Roma prediction, the Mourinho team could draw level on the guest.
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This is one of the reasons why we are not averse to checking the odds on the double chance X2 between Fiorentina and AS Roma. Here, too, it would be conceivable to consider the addition of under 3.5 goals, because in nine of the last twelve Roma league games the bet on a maximum of three goals in the course of the game would have been successful. Such two betting markets can also be combined with each other via the Bet365 app, for example.
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After Thursday's intense Conference League second leg, which was won against Leicester City, there will certainly be one or the other change in personnel. Of course, Mourinho will not muster a complete B-Elf. This game in Tuscany is too important. Offensively one also hopes for Tammy Abraham, who currently has 15 goals this season. Should he score again, he would draw level with record holder Gerry Hitchens, who scored 16 goals in one season as an English striker in Serie A in the early 1960s.
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Expected line-up of AS Roma:
Patricio; Mancini, Smalling, Kumbulla; Maitland-Niles, Cristante, Veretout, Vina; pellegrini; Afena-Gyan, Abraham
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AS Roma want to defend their European place in Florence. However, coach Jose Mourinho's side have not won in the last 3 games of the series with 2 draws. The Giallorossi have only lost once in their last 14 league games. This puts the Romans in sixth place, just 3 points ahead of seventh. In the last 8 league games, 15 points looked out, 2 more than at Fiorentina.
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Roma have failed to win their last two away games (D1 L1), drawing 1-1 at Napoli and 3-1 at Inter. The Lupi have collected 7 wins and 3 draws with 7 defeats abroad this season. The goal difference is positive at 30:25. Mourinho's side have scored in their last 9 away games and have conceded more than 1.5 goals in just 1 of their last 9 league games.
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Direct duels: Fiorentina vs Roma
In a direct comparison, the Roma have the edge. The Giallorossi have won 6 of the last 10 duels, the most recent 5 in a row. Fiorentina have only won 2 and drawn 2 each and have not won in the last 6 matches (D1, L5).
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Roma have won their last two appearances in Florence. In the last 5 home duels, Fiorentina could only prevail once in 3 bankruptcies. Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 8 direct duels. This was also the case in the last 5 meetings in Florence. As a result, in 6 of the last 7 comparisons there were more than 2.5 and 4 times over 3.5 goals. In the last 3 games in Florence there were a total of 16 goals.
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The Romans won the first leg of the current season 3-1. Incidentally, it was already the fifth direct duel in a row that the capital club was able to win in Serie A against the men from Tuscany. The head-to-head balance is therefore clearly in favor of the Mourinho team, who last lost to Florence in the 2017/18 season.
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AC Fiorentina
- 3 defeats in a row
- 3 wins from 4 home games
- only 3 goals in 4 league games
- 6 duels without a win
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AS Roma
- 3 league games without a win
- 2 away games without a win
- Goals in 9 guest appearances
- 5 duel wins in a row
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Tips and predictions
Based on our analysis, we expect a successful game with goals from both teams. Risk takers bet on more than 3.5 goals in the game. Roma will not lose this match, the winning bet can be secured as a double chance or as a draw no bet tip 2. The guests from the capital will secure the second round, at the break it could be a draw or the hosts can lead.
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