Italy - Spain: Tips, prognosis & odds - 06.10.2021 - EUROPE: UEFA Nations League - League A - Play Offs
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Italy - Spain: Tips, prognosis & odds - 06.10.2021 - EUROPE: UEFA Nations League - League A - Play Offs
The UEFA Nations League continues to be a controversial competition among the many football fans in Europe. In the past, many national coaches have also been rather critical of the new construct, which is intended to create more tension in the international match windows, which are not about a World Cup or European Championship qualification, instead of pure friendly matches.
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Despite the understandable criticism from many sides, at least four national teams will put their prejudices aside in the next few days and instead fight for the title. Italy and Spain will contest the first semi-final on Wednesday evening. According to the odds, the favorite role lies with the European champion, who also claims the home advantage for himself. Kick-off is at 8.45 p.m. in San Siro in Milan.
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At the same time, it is the remake of the EM semifinals from around three months ago, in which the Squadra Azzurra just got the upper hand with 4: 2 after penalties. Again, in the duel between Italy and Spain, a prediction of a draw after regular time is not so absurd. In the end, however, there are some indications that the Mancini-Elf will make it to the final and then play against the winner of the match Belgium vs. France for the second title within a year.
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Italy - statistics & current form
Did you know that all babies in the world who will have turned three in September 2021 have never seen the Italian national team lose an international match? In fact, the Squadra Azzurra has been unbeaten since autumn 2018.
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The reigning European champion did not lose out 37 times in a row. Coach Roberto Mancini's team was able to make 16 of the last 18 games victorious. No matter whether after extra time, penalty shoot-out or in regular time. The now 56-year-old head coach now has an outstanding record of 31 wins, nine draws and only two bankruptcies after having completed 42 international matches.
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Is Italy writing to chapter 38?
One would almost think that the Italians can hardly go into this Final Four of the top division of the Nations League with hardly any more momentum. But this is by no means the case, because during the last international break in September the world number five had to settle for a draw against Bulgaria (1: 1) and against Switzerland (0: 0). It was only against Lithuania that the leaders of Group C returned to the road to success in qualifying for the World Cup.
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Since the statistics are of course impressive on the bottom line and the home advantage on Wednesday evening does the rest, it would be a bit naive to tip the European champions in the duel between Italy and Spain. However, since the risk continues to resonate against a good opponent, it may make sense to check the odds on the "To-Qualify" market. This can sometimes also be done in the new and uncomplicated Bildbet app.
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We assume that the favorite will prevail and make it into the final perfectly. The fact that Ciro Immobile, one of the most important offensive players, will be out of action due to an injury does not change that. In the absence of the former Dortmund player, Moise Kean could start again in the front line. Next to him, Chiesa and Insignia should ensure the necessary goal danger.
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Expected formation of Italy:
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Emerson; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti; Chiesa, Kean, Insigne
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Spain - statistics & current form
The Spanish national soccer team was definitely one of the more positive appearances of the tournament at the European championship in summer. Coach Luis Enrique's team was particularly convincing in terms of football, although sometimes the excessive possession of the ball resulted in too few real scoring chances and, in the second step, too rarely in goals. This was certainly the reason why the final round against the eventual title holder was the end of the line.
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Furia Roja wants to take revenge on Wednesday evening. If you ignore the 6-0 success against completely disaffected Germans in November 2020, the Spaniards have had problems time and again in the past with winning against top European nations. Also in the group stage in the Nations League, the world number eight celebrated "only” three wins in six attempts and was the first to secure a ticket for the Final Four.
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Replacement weakened Spaniards need a concentrated defensive performance
If we look at the odds of bookmakers with a German license before the first semi-final between Italy and Spain, it becomes clear that the Luis Enrique-Elf in Milan is only treated as an outsider. This assessment may also be justified by the defensive being too vulnerable. Goalkeeper Simon from Athletic Bilbao was only able to keep the clean slate in four of twelve competitive games in the calendar year 2021. In the end, not even in the World Cup qualification against Georgia or Kosovo was zero.
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To make matters worse, on Wednesday evening, the Spaniards, who after their 2-1 defeat against Sweden at the beginning of September even have to worry about a direct ticket for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, have to do without some key players.
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Pedri, Thiago, Dani Olmo or Morata, who all played important roles in the team at the European Championship finals, are absent due to injuries and have to be replaced. The hopes in the game forward rest on the shoulders of the three offensive players Ferran Torres, Pedro Sarabia and Mikel Oyarzabal, who should all be physically behind against Chiellini and Bonucci. It cannot therefore be completely ruled out that the prognosis of a "to zero” victory for the European champions between Italy and Spain will pay off. The Bet365 app can be used to win more than three times the stake in the event of success.
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Expected formation of Spain:
Simon; Azpilicueta, Torres, Laporte, Reguilon; Koke, busquets, merino; Sarabia, Torres, Oyarzabal
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Betting base forecast & Italy Italy - Spain Spain tip
Although the Nations League is polarizing for understandable reasons and especially soccer traditionalists cannot do much with the competition, which is primarily aimed at commercial reasons, we can look forward to exciting matches in the Final Four in the coming weeks. We are looking for the successor to the Portuguese who won the first edition.
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A very hot candidate is the reigning European champion, who in his semifinals meets the opponent who was brought to his knees on the way to the European title in the semifinals. In view of the unbeaten series of the Mancini-Elf, which now lasts 37 international matches, it is absolutely understandable that lower odds are offered on the Gli Azzurri between Italy and Spain.
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We agree with this opinion and try in the first semi-final between Italy and Spain with the tip that the favorite will reach the final. But because we don't want to decide whether the Squadra Azzurra will move into the final after 90 or 120 minutes, we allude to the 1.64 at the tested bookmaker ComeOn on the easy progress of the European champion.
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