Kelly criterion

Kelly criterion was developed in 1956 by John L. Kelly. Unlike the Martingale strategy, the Kelly Criterion would not lead you to bankruptcy because the bet is determined as a percentage of your available money for betting. Thus the risk of bankrupt is off.

If so, the lower formula can estimate the optimal size of your bet.

(coefficient x your pick) - 1

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                 odd - 1

 

Here is an example:

Your Bank: 1000 eur

odd for an event: 5:00

Your pick for the event: 0.25 (25%)

The formula we get: (5.00 x 0.25 - 1) / (5.00 - 1) = 0.0625. you would have to bet $ 62.50 eur. (0.0625 x 1,000 eur).

The main advantage of this strategy is that you lose less money when your bank reduce. If your average stake is 10% of the money you lost it at 6 bets in a row, it will have 48% of the original bank. And if you predict 10% more accurate probability of the outcome of a meeting of a bookmaker, the probability of losing bets with odds 2.00 ten times in a row is equal to only 0.033%.