Leicester: "The Dirty Dozen" or scientific experiment
Leicester: "The Dirty Dozen" or scientific experiment
This article should start with financial recognition - for their own incompetence of the author. For about 20 years each August tutorial 20 pounds of Leicester City to win the English Premier League. The wall of my office in The Economist in London was packed with pins stuck with failed slips to be ridiculed by my colleagues who supported the more successful teams.
Indeed, Lester finished second once, but that was in season 1928/29. Their main struggle in my life was to avoid relegation - a struggle that had lost seven times. Last summer, when I moved to New York to work with Bloomberg I missed routine betting: coefficient Leicester to win the Premiership was 5000-1, but somewhere deep inside I assumed that I saved some 20 pounds.
Huge mistake. There are only three matches and Leicester has seven points from the top of the standings. If I bet Lester would have to keep tickets in vault - would cost 100,000 pounds if the team won only one of the remaining three games (and maybe even that might not be necessary if the latter - Tottenham Hotspars slip). Earlier this month, fearing bookmakers started offering fans the chance to cash in Leicester betting on 75% of their potential value.
Being a supporter of Leicester almost half a century, squeezing a recent home game disguised as a fan of Southampton (only such tickets remained), and even relying on Emile Heskey, a notoriously imprecise striker Lester to become the top scorer of the World, this columnist has proved to be hopelessly addicted and financially incompetent. But please accept two mathematically proven truths. The first is that if Lester succeeds, it will be the craziest surprise in modern team sports. The second is that Lester will did it by applying scientific management in one of the most unscientific activities.
The first true can be proved by probability theory. Nothing in American sports can not close. Judging by gambling their value as Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves are very bad in baseball, but with the approach of spring training you can get a factor that will win the World Series no higher than 500 - 1. Likelihood Lester win it was 10 times less. Will threw that bookmakers give the same chance Bono to become the next pope.
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