Value bets
Value bets
This strategy is the following - choose your particular match and compare the coefficients in the different bookies. If you find odds that you think is raised for a specific event can make your Value bet.
To check if you have reason to make a Value bet must verify whether the following formula:
R x O> 1, where:
K - coefficient bookmaker gives you;
O - do you think the likelihood a given event to happen, this probability is 0 to 1
By multiplying both counts resulting amount must be greater than 1.
example:
The coefficient for an event is 5.5 and the likelihood you think this event happen is 20% or, in absolute value 0.20.
Now multiply as 5.5*0.20 = 1.10> 1 therefore are present Value bet.
In this strategy, no matter how unlikely an event if the odds on probability is greater than 1 and make a sufficient number of bets that meet the criteria Value bet it sooner or later, this strategy will bring you profit.
In this strategy as lower the odds you choose to play the greater the error in the likelihood that define this event to happen. For example, if suppose likelihood error is about 10%, the odds at 4 to the condition of Value bet likelihood have to 0.25. In 10% error maximum deviation is 0.025. However, if you choose to play 2 odds probability it should be 50%, which means that the maximum error is 0.05. This is twice as high probability of error.
Once we analyzed the odds and have determined who will be our Value bet must be a certain amount that will put on it. It is better to define an amount corresponding probabilities and rely only her.
Finally, you should keep in mind that the strategy for Value bet may not work immediately and you may not be profitable immediately. You must be patient and soberly assess every situation. If you are wrong in their assessments of the likelihood of events on which betting is very probably by losing all their money.